I mentioned in my post discussing LADCO air quality meeting that I would put up the most relevant slides or graphics from all the presentation over the two days in Chicago. I think I can pretty much boil it down to two slides.
This slide was put together by U.S. EPA when meeting to discuss their support of a Legislative fix to reinstate CAIR. As discussed, no legislative fix appears possible at least in the short run.
The bar chart shows the reductions of existing SO2 emissions based up various legislative fixes. The bar to the far left is emissions in 2005. The short series of bars represents full reinstatement of Phase I (2009) and Phase II (2015) of CAIR. Then we go through no fix, 2 year temporary fix, 4 year temporary fix, and permanent reinstatement of only Phase I.
Okay, so this is a great visual for the massive reductions in SO2 expected as a result of CAIR. With no legislative fix and successful appeal of the Court’s decision vacating CAIR unlikely, looks like we are at the "no fix" point on the graph.
But what does this mean to air quality? While the presentations from the States all indicate attainment of the 1997 ozone standard (.85 ppm) appears likely, its a much different story for P.M. 2.5 (fine particles).
This is the latest modeling of air quality in the Midwest without CAIR. The map on the right shows no CAIR. The map on the left with CAIR. The more color dots the more area not meeting U.S. EPA’s PM 2.5 standard.
The chart below provides the overall scorecard. We go from only 3 areas in the Midwest not meeting the standards, to a total of 20 area.
Furthermore, all of the presentations discussed that PM 2.5 (fine particle) pollution is regional in nature. Which means the states will find it probably impossible to attain the standard without regional reductions similar to CAIR’s reductions from power plants.
With more areas not attaining, more states will be forced to consider much costly controls on existing businesses. In addition, areas that don’t meet U.S. EPA’s air quality standard find it more difficult to attract new business or plant expansions in their areas. Not good news for the Midwest during these tough economic times.